Snowmelt Runoff in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin and Runoff Change in the Future

Comprehending the impacts of climate change on regional hydrology and future projections water supplies is great value to manage resources in Yarlung Zangbo River Basin (YZRB). However, large uncertainties from both input data model itself exert obstacles accurate projections. In this work, a hydrological modeling framework was established over YZRB linking Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) with an empirical formulation, called degree-day glacier-melt scheme (VIC–Glacier). The performance evaluated through three aspects, including streamflow, snow cover area, glacier area. Nine GCM models emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) CMIP6 were chosen drive calibrated VIC–Glacier model. results showed that precipitation temperature resulted increase around 25% 13%, respectively, multi-year average runoff June September, under SSP5-8.5 SSP1-2.6. projected increase, as compensation for decrease by end 21st century. An apparent increasing trend expected before 2050 after year 2060 SSP 5-8.5, steeply decreasing 2060, negligible SSP1-2.6 2020 contrast 2100.